Strategic dialogue
BY now it’s an open secret: the strategic dialogue between the US and Pakistan is for all intents and purposes being run on this side by the Pakistan Army. Perhaps that isn’t a surprise because the government in Islamabad has virtually surrendered the national security and foreign policy domains to the generals. Opinion will as usual be divided. One camp will argue that the generals will never let a civilian government stand on its feet and will never give it the space to govern. The other camp will argue that the civilian government has proved woefully inept in matters of governance and the ad hoc, devil-may-care approach of the politicians has created a vacuum that the army has been forced to occupy in the national interest. The truth, as ever, lies somewhere in between.
At this point, on the eve of the latest ministerial round of the strategic dialogue, it is important to revisit the purpose behind initiating the dialogue. The US-Pakistan relationship has historically been an uneven one, with periods of intense cooperation followed by periods of acute disillusionment and suspicion. The strategic dialogue was meant to demonstrate that US commitment to Pakistan goes beyond narrow security aims and that the US wishes to help Pakistan sort out its economic, development and political challenges. That is why areas such as energy and water and social issues such as health and education have been given so much prominence in the dialogue.
And that is why the Pakistani government’s seeming lack of direction and purpose when it comes to preparing and guiding the dialogue is so surprising: any potential help on the social, development and economic front from an outside power with deep pockets like the US should be grabbed with both hands, given the country’s precarious position.
In the absence of leadership from the civilian side, the army is trying to shape the dialogue in line with its own vision for Pakistan. The emphasis that Pakistan is expected to lay on water disputes with India during the talks with the Americans can be read as an attempt by the security establishment to focus on regional security issues. The message to the Americans: help Pakistan cope with regional pressures, especially India’s growing influence in Afghanistan, because that way the Pakistani state will be able to operate in a more secure environment and focus more fully on putting its own house in order. Whether one agrees with that vision or not, the fact of the matter is that the civilian government needs to get its act together first. A dialogue emphasising social, economic and development issues should be led by the civilians.
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