Dawn - 17-07-10

Keep talking

THERE was little hope of a meaningful breakthrough during the Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna’s visit and that’s exactly what occurred. There was nothing substantive. In fact, even lesser expectations were not met. There was nothing on trade, nothing on visa relaxations, and no schedule of meetings for the months ahead was announced. The only ‘concrete’ announcement was that Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi would visit New Delhi at some undetermined point in the future. Even that was tainted by the petty squabbling that broke out between the two foreign ministers in their separate press conferences in Islamabad and New Delhi yesterday.

At this point, there are two ways of looking at the present situation. The more pessimistic scenario is as follows. In India, the pro-peace brigade is losing, if it has not already lost. Those pressing for the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan irrespective of American demands and pressure appear to have been defeated by the hawkish camp that is willing to play along with the Americans for the sake of ‘optics’ while making it clear that nothing will change until meaningful action is taken by Pakistan on the Mumbai attacks. Mumbai is still the ‘core concern’ for the Indian side. Here in Pakistan, according to the more pessimistic scenario, the inability to successfully close the trial of the seven men being prosecuted in an antiterrorism court in Rawalpindi is an indication that the security establishment is not willing to engage India. According to this narrative, the security apparatus is increasingly hawkish on India and is in no mood to make any concessions whatsoever to Enemy No 1.


The more optimistic interpretation is that India and Pakistan are warily reengaging one another, the diplomatic hiccups the result of a nascent but real process of rebuilding trust and confidence in a relationship poisoned by mutual distrust. For a dispute that is over six decades old, a few months — from the prime ministers’ meeting in Thimpu to the present — is a mere blink of an eye. The optimists suggest that the excruciatingly slow pace of re-engagement isn’t indicative of problems but a way of building a solid base for the next phase of the peace dialogue between the two countries. Rational and sensible people on both sides of the border will be hoping that it is the optimistic hypothesis which is true. But even if it is not, the two sides must ensure that they keep talking to each other. The constituency for peace in India and Pakistan is elastic — engagement will ensure that constituency grows. No talks, though, would mean that the Mumbai attackers have won and the people of South Asia have.

Source : http://epaper.dawn.com/ArticleText.aspx?article=17_07_2010_007_001